TRW WEEKLY REPORT FOR 15TH TO 19TH MARCH 2010.

What an interesting week we witnessed on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange as the BULLS traded up in volume and value for 5 days running without signs of weakness. The Index was up by 5.31% outperforming February returns of 1.73%.

Why did the market go up?

Some school of thought believe current Low interest rates in the money market is unattractive and has made investors moving funds to the capital market

Another believe the actualization of the long awaited succor for the NCM malaise – the Asset Management Company (AMC) - begins to look realistic subsequent to the scaling to the second reading of the bill establishing the company.

The Third school of thought oppose the above and believe it might be a BULL TRAP as Earnings seasons for NSE BANKING (which accounts for 65% of market CAP) is drawing near, and investors might get trap in the current UPTREND.

Overall market remains BULLISH in Daily, Weekly and Monthly time frame as 4 major indexes have currently made NEW RECOVERY HIGHS (NSE ASI, NSE 30, NSE BANKING, NSE  FOOD BEVERAGES & TOBACCO).

TECHNICAL VIEW

Though the overall market put up an interesting upward rally this week setting new recovery highs. The markets are clearly overbought at this point, but they have continued to show amazing resiliency and have closed higher almost everyday for the past months. Short term traders continue to be punished with how persistent the markets have been in moving higher. Rather than staying in a range, several market sectors have moved to new highs and most of the major indexes are following suit.

It’s interesting that the markets were able to clear their prior highs with little effort except for NSE OIL & GAS and NSE INSURANCE. The major indexes are clearly overbought and extended, so traders should be very cautious about chasing stocks at these levels. The bottom line is that they are also clearly showing strength.

we expect to see the first signs of weakness this coming week,  and likely a 2 days pullback before a Bullish continuation of the current trend.
Use TRW STOCKBROKERS STOCKS WATCH LIST FOR MULTIPLE TIME FRAME OF DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY as your trading guide
 

Have a Great Trading week.

WEEKLY INDEX

Ticker	Date	Previous	Price	%Change
NSE	12/03/2010	22,923.91	24,141.72	5.31
NSE 30	12/03/2010	919.55	969.40	5.42
NSE BANKING	12/03/2010	378.75	407.88	7.69
NSE F&B	12/03/2010	634.48	654.61	3.17
NSE INS	12/03/2010	193.92	194.05	0.07
NSE O&G	12/03/2010	303.24	303.02	-0.07

For  12/03/2010 the closing price was 24,141.72.(NSE INDEX)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending
The projected upper bound is: 24,832.43.
The projected lower bound is: 23,594.23.
The projected closing price is: 24,213.33.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market. market.

For 12/03/2010 the closing price was 969.40(NSE30)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending.
The projected upper bound is: 1,000.61.
The projected lower bound is: 944.29.
The projected closing price is: 972.45.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For  12/03/2010 the closing price was 407.88.(NSE BANKING)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 424.93.
The projected lower bound is: 393.81.
The projected closing price is: 409.37.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market. .

For  12/03/2010 the closing price was 654.61.(NSE FOOD, BEV.& TOBACCO)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
The projected upper bound is: 679.77.
The projected lower bound is: 634.98.
The projected closing price is: 657.37.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For  12/03/2010 the closing price was 194.05.(NSE INSURANCE)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 210.75.
The projected upper bound is: 198.69.
The projected lower bound is: 187.22.
The projected closing price is: 192.96.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For  12/03/2010 the closing price was 303.02.(NSE OIL & GAS)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
The projected upper bound is: 309.26.
The projected lower bound is: 297.38.
The projected closing price is: 303.32.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

BELOW ARE TRW STOCKBROKERS STOCKS WATCH LIST FOR MULTIPLE TIME FRAME OF DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY
SHORT TREND TRADERS TO USE MA 5
MEDIUM TREND TRADERS TO USE MA-50
LONG TERM TRADERS TO USE MA-100
MA (MOVING AVERAGE)

 

ticker	date	MA-100	MA-50	MA-5	Overall Trend	Trend Phase	Comments
ACCESS	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
AFRIBANK	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Progress	live to trade another day
AIICO	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
AP	12/03/2010	+	+	+ + +	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
ASHAKACEM	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
ASOSAVINGS	12/03/2010	-	+	-	No Trend	Initial	trading range-avoid
BAGCO	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
BCC	12/03/2010	+	+ +	+ + +	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
BIGTREAT	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Initial	live to trade another day
CHAMS	12/03/2010	-	+		No Trend	Initial	trading range-avoid
CILEASING	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
CONOIL	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
CONTINSURE	12/03/2010	-	-	+	No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
CORNERST	12/03/2010	-		-	Down Trend	Progress	Watch Trend?
COSTAIN	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
CRUSADER	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
CUSTODYINS	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
DANGFLOUR	12/03/2010	+	+	+ +	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
DANGSUGAR	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
DIAMONDBNK	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
FCMB	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
FIDELITYBK	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
FIRSTBANK	12/03/2010	+	+	+ +	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
FIRSTINLND	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Progress	live to trade another day
FLOURMILL	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
FTNCOCOA	12/03/2010	+	+		No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
GUARANTY	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Progress	Stay with Trend
GUINEAINS	12/03/2010				Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
GUINNESS	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Initial	live to trade another day
HMARKINS	12/03/2010				Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
IBTC	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
INTENEGINS	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Progress	Watch Trend?
INTERCONT	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Progress	live to trade another day
JAPAULOIL	12/03/2010	-	+	-	No Trend	Initial	trading range-avoid
JBERGER	12/03/2010	+	+		No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
LASACO	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
MAYBAKER	12/03/2010	+	+		No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
MBENEFIT	12/03/2010				Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
MULTIVERSE	12/03/2010				Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
NAHCO	12/03/2010	+	+	-	No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
NASCON	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
NB	12/03/2010	+	+	+ +	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
NBC	12/03/2010	+	+	-	No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
NEIMETH	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
NEM	12/03/2010		-	+	No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
NESTLE	12/03/2010	+ +	+ + +		No Trend	Progress	Risk for short term reversal
NIGERINS	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
OANDO	12/03/2010	-	-	- - -	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
OCEANIC	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Progress	live to trade another day
PLATINUM	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Progress	live to trade another day
PRESTIGE	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
PZ	12/03/2010	+	+	+ +	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
REDSTAREX	12/03/2010	+	+	-	No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
REGALINS	04/03/2010				Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
SKYEBANK	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
SOVRENINS	12/03/2010				Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
STARCOMMS	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
STDINSURE	12/03/2010	-	-		Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
STERLNBANK	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
TANTALIZER	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
UAC-PROP	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
UACN	12/03/2010	+	+	+ +	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
UBA	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
UBN	12/03/2010	-	+	+	No Trend	Initial	live to trade another day
UNHOMES	12/03/2010	-	+	-	No Trend	Progress	trading range-avoid
UNIC	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
UNILEVER	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Progress	Stay with Trend
UNITYBNK	12/03/2010	-	+	-	No Trend	Initial	trading range-avoid
UPL	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend
VITAFOAM	12/03/2010	+	-	+	No Trend	Initial	trading range-avoid
WAPCO	12/03/2010	+	+	-	No Trend	Initial	Risk for short term reversal
WAPIC	12/03/2010	-	-	-	Down Trend	Initial	Watch Trend?
WEMABANK	12/03/2010	-	+	-	No Trend	Initial	trading range-avoid
ZENITHBANK	12/03/2010	+	+	+	Up Trend	Initial	Stay with Trend

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