TRW WEEKLY REPORT FOR 14TH-18TH DECEMBER 2009

Down Down & Away!
The NSE went down down and away last week, dropping over 2.6% in an all out bearish breakout. It certainly looks eager enough to touch and probably break the 20,000 support level. At this rate, it could take out the level by this week!

With the reality of bad earnings and bad short term economic forecast from the Banking sector, Is the market ready for that final capitulation? It certainly does look close enough as the Index approached the bottom line of its neutral channel. Over the next two days, we should see the Index either reversing its course back upwards again, continuing its neutral trend or breaking out to downside. The deciding factor would be the strength of the 20,000 support level.
 

TECHNICAL VIEW
Watching the NSE Index, NSE 30, NSE Banking charts closely shows price approaching the Support line and possibilities of forming a DOUBLE BOTTOM formation.
RSI readings on (32.32) NSE Index has reversed within 25 points, this has occurred 5 times since September.
RSI readings (39.20) on NSE 30 has reversed within 29-32 points, this has occurred 6 times since July.
RSI readings (37.93) on NSE Banking reversed within 20-30 points, this has occurred 12 times since March.
Technically, we expect to hit these figures from Tuesday, a breakout below these points might put the various index on a continuous bearish Trend. 

Bottom Line
While all has not been lost for the major indexes, this week's price action should not be ignored. There have been signals of weakness for several weeks now, and it appears that at least one sector (BANKING) has broken down already. With the breakdown coming in a group that should be leading the way, caution is warranted at this point. The last four days in the markets have been very wide in range, and volatile too. This makes for an emotional environment, and it is often best to step aside at times like this (if you are not a professional) and wait for a lower risk environment. The markets are quickly becoming oversold and approaching what should be strong support levels, so it may be that a snapback is soon to come. The key will be how the markets react to the next bounce, and whether that bounce will be used as a launching point for another down draft. The April lows of (19.814) remain the line in the sand for now, and will be pivotal in the coming week.

HAVE A NICE TRADING WEEK

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WEEKLY INDEX

For 11/12/2009 the closing price was 20,659.08.(NSE INDEX)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 21,228.38.
The projected lower bound is: 20,037.37.
The projected closing price is: 20,632.88.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For 11/12/2009 the closing price was 816.86(NSE30)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 837.46.
The projected lower bound is: 795.72.
The projected closing price is: 816.59.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.
 

For 11/12/2009 the closing price was 333.47.(NSE BANKING)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 351.86.
The projected lower bound is: 314.22.
The projected closing price is: 333.04.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.
 

For 11/12/2009 the closing price was 498.4100.(NSE FOOD BEV & TOBACCO)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are Moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 484.91.
The projected upper bound is: 525.23.
The projected lower bound is: 499.65.
The projected closing price is: 512.57.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For 11/12/2009 the closing price was 248.7000.(NSE INSURANCE)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 270.18.
The projected upper bound is: 256.00.
The projected lower bound is: 241.15.
The projected closing price is: 248.57.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For 04/12/2009 the closing price was 291.2100.(NSE OIL & GAS)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
Prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 297.43
The projected upper bound is: 297.43.
The projected lower bound is: 283.85.
The projected closing price is: 290.58.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

Below are TRW STOCKBROKERS STOCKS WATCH LIST FOR MULTIPLE TIME FRAME OF DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY
SHORT TREND TRADERS TO USE MA 5
MEDIUM TREND TRADERS TO USE MA-50
LONG TERM TRADERS TO USE MA-100
MA (MOVING AVERAGE)

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