|
 |
TRW MONTHLY WEEKLY REPORT FOR
1ST MARCH TO 5TH MARCH 2010
Welcome to
march. A month of uncertainty where investors trade we caution as we
approach earnings season. Comparing
the market from January till date the NSE ASI readings have shown a
continuous decline in momentum.
Table below showed the Index gained a total of
8.49%
in January,
while February recorded
1.79%.
Technical VIEW
Watching the market from a Technical view calls for a lot of concern
as the NSE ASI is trending (22,985.00)on a thin support line
of 25DMA of 22,934.40 points. The market needs to bounce off this
line to sustain confidence. A break below the line will put the
market in a state of uncertainty.
We expect
a reversal as RSI is currently at 54.4 points to form a Double
Bottom pattern formation around this region. A break below this
range will see the Index trading within 22.400 points range.
MACD though
above BUY signal on a Daily Time Frame showed a Negative Cross-over
on the 10th of February. Weekly/Monthly Time Frame continue to show
Bullish Strength/Divergence in the market.
I did a 12
years research back to 1998, how the market has
fared between MARCH to APRIL. The table shows Market was DOWN 7
times and UP 5 times. Most DOWN trends have occurred in the last 6
years, Is the market going to experience a repetition of this
TREND?.
For now there is a real mix of strength and weakness in all of these charts.
The markets remain in a veritable "no man's land", as the
risk-reward to either side is not attractive for opening new
positions. Next week should resolve some questions as traders return
from the holiday week and the important levels highlighted above are
tested.
Have a Great Trading week.
NSE
ALL SHARES INDEX FROM 98-2010.
|
YEAR |
TREND |
MARCH |
APRIL |
|
1998 |
DOWN |
6,426.17
|
6,321.63
|
|
1999 |
UP |
5,376.48
|
5,456.22
|
|
2000 |
UP |
5,955.73
|
5,966.24
|
|
2001 |
UP |
9,180.53
|
9,591.58
|
|
2002 |
UP |
10,581.90
|
11,214.40
|
|
2003 |
DOWN |
13,668.80
|
13,531.11
|
|
2004 |
DOWN |
24,797.40
|
22,896.40
|
|
2005 |
DOWN |
21,659.70
|
20,710.80
|
|
2006 |
DOWN |
23,789.80
|
23,301.20
|
|
2007 |
UP |
40,313.00
|
43,870.30
|
|
2008 |
DOWN |
65,911.00
|
63,075.31
|
|
2009 |
DOWN |
22,634.20
|
19,871.70
|
|
FEBRUARY MONTHLY
INDEX.
|
Ticker |
Date |
Previous |
Price |
%Change |
|
NSE |
25/02/2010 |
22594.90 |
22985.00 |
1.73 |
|
NSE 30 |
25/02/2010 |
891.25 |
919.77 |
3.20 |
|
NSE
BANKING |
25/02/2010 |
374.27 |
380.84 |
1.76 |
|
NSE F&B |
25/02/2010 |
596.22 |
618.60 |
3.75 |
|
NSE INS |
25/02/2010 |
223.19 |
200.79 |
-10.04 |
|
NSE O&G |
25/02/2010 |
298.31 |
309.59 |
3.78 |
JANUARY MONTHLY INDEX
|
Ticker |
Date |
Previous |
Price |
%Change |
|
NSE |
29/01/2010 |
20,827.17 |
22,594.90 |
8.49
|
|
NSE 30 |
29/01/2010 |
827.99 |
891.25 |
7.64
|
|
NSE BANKING |
29/01/2010 |
339.32 |
374.27 |
10.30
|
|
NSE F&B |
29/01/2010 |
526.71 |
596.22 |
13.20
|
|
NSE INS |
29/01/2010 |
249.01 |
223.19 |
-10.37 |
|
NSE O&G |
29/01/2010 |
288.06 |
298.31 |
3.56
|
|
INDEX WEEKLY TIME
FRAME
|
Ticker |
Date |
Previous |
Price |
%Change |
|
NSE |
25/02/2010 |
23168.64 |
22985.00 |
-0.79 |
|
NSE 30 |
25/02/2010 |
924.93 |
919.77 |
-0.56 |
|
NSE
BANKING |
25/02/2010 |
384.33 |
380.84 |
-0.91 |
|
NSE F&B |
25/02/2010 |
608.94 |
618.60 |
1.59 |
|
NSE INS |
25/02/2010 |
208.90 |
200.79 |
-3.88 |
|
NSE O&G |
25/02/2010 |
295.88 |
309.59 |
4.63 |
|
MONTHLY
GAINERS
|
Ticker |
Date |
Previous |
Price |
Monthly |
|
AP |
25/02/2010 |
36.40 |
47.46 |
30.38 |
|
BAGCO |
25/02/2010 |
1.90 |
2.34 |
23.16 |
|
FTNCOCOA |
25/02/2010 |
0.72 |
0.87 |
20.83 |
|
FLOURMILL |
25/02/2010 |
38.85 |
45.10 |
16.09 |
|
UNITYBNK |
25/02/2010 |
1.00 |
1.15 |
15.00 |
|
DIAMONDBNK |
25/02/2010 |
8.40 |
9.35 |
11.31 |
|
UNIC |
25/02/2010 |
0.74 |
0.82 |
10.81 |
|
ACCESS |
25/02/2010 |
8.23 |
9.10 |
10.57 |
|
ASHAKACEM |
25/02/2010 |
14.77 |
16.20 |
9.68 |
|
AIICO |
25/02/2010 |
0.94 |
1.03 |
9.57 |
|
SKYEBANK |
25/02/2010 |
6.79 |
7.36 |
8.39 |
|
UACN |
25/02/2010 |
40.01 |
43.29 |
8.20 |
|
UNILEVER |
25/02/2010 |
23.17 |
25.00 |
7.90 |
|
NESTLE |
25/02/2010 |
252.00 |
270.00 |
7.14 |
|
FIDELITYBK |
25/02/2010 |
2.51 |
2.68 |
6.77 |
|
DANGSUGAR |
25/02/2010 |
15.10 |
16.00 |
5.96 |
|
NB |
25/02/2010 |
54.15 |
57.00 |
5.26 |
|
UAC-PROP |
25/02/2010 |
20.00 |
21.00 |
5.00 |
|
UBA |
25/02/2010 |
12.45 |
13.01 |
4.50 |
|
FCMB |
25/02/2010 |
8.85 |
9.20 |
3.95 |
|
WAPCO |
25/02/2010 |
34.00 |
35.20 |
3.53 |
|
CUSTODYINS |
25/02/2010 |
2.85 |
2.95 |
3.51 |
|
ZENITHBANK |
25/02/2010 |
15.31 |
15.71 |
2.61 |
|
COSTAIN |
25/02/2010 |
4.88 |
5.00 |
2.46 |
|
STERLNBANK |
25/02/2010 |
1.69 |
1.73 |
2.37 |
|
IBTC |
25/02/2010 |
8.30 |
8.45 |
1.81 |
|
CONOIL |
25/02/2010 |
33.57 |
34.17 |
1.79 |
|
WEMABANK |
25/02/2010 |
1.13 |
1.15 |
1.77 |
|
GUARANTY |
25/02/2010 |
17.79 |
18.06 |
1.52 |
|
REDSTAREX |
25/02/2010 |
2.61 |
2.64 |
1.15 |
|
UPL |
25/02/2010 |
5.45 |
5.50 |
0.92 |
|
CILEASING |
25/02/2010 |
2.69 |
2.70 |
0.37 |
|
GUINNESS |
25/02/2010 |
128.7 |
129.00 |
0.23 |
|
BCC |
25/02/2010 |
50.00 |
50.07 |
0.14 |
|
MONTHLY LOSERS
|
Ticker |
Date |
Previous |
Price |
Monthly |
|
STDINSURE |
25/02/2010 |
0.67 |
0.50 |
-25.37 |
|
NIGERINS |
25/02/2010 |
0.92 |
0.74 |
-19.57 |
|
VITAFOAM |
25/02/2010 |
5.49 |
4.72 |
-14.03 |
|
PLATINUM |
25/02/2010 |
2.22 |
1.91 |
-13.96 |
|
NEIMETH |
25/02/2010 |
1.70 |
1.47 |
-13.53 |
|
INTERCONT |
25/02/2010 |
2.30 |
2.00 |
-13.04 |
|
CORNERST |
25/02/2010 |
0.57 |
0.50 |
-12.28 |
|
OCEANIC |
25/02/2010 |
2.36 |
2.08 |
-11.86 |
|
UNHOMES |
25/02/2010 |
0.98 |
0.87 |
-11.22 |
|
FIRSTINLND |
25/02/2010 |
0.77 |
0.69 |
-10.39 |
|
CRUSADER |
25/02/2010 |
1.05 |
0.95 |
-9.52 |
|
LASACO |
25/02/2010 |
0.56 |
0.51 |
-8.93 |
|
MAYBAKER |
25/02/2010 |
5.50 |
5.04 |
-8.36 |
|
NASCON |
25/02/2010 |
6.73 |
6.20 |
-7.88 |
|
CHAMS |
25/02/2010 |
0.77 |
0.71 |
-7.79 |
|
NAHCO |
25/02/2010 |
9.04 |
8.36 |
-7.52 |
|
UBN |
25/02/2010 |
6.45 |
6.05 |
-6.20 |
|
NEM |
25/02/2010 |
0.54 |
0.51 |
-5.56 |
|
PRESTIGE |
25/02/2010 |
3.80 |
3.61 |
-5.00 |
|
WAPIC |
25/02/2010 |
1.04 |
0.99 |
-4.81 |
|
ASOSAVINGS |
25/02/2010 |
0.68 |
0.65 |
-4.41 |
|
AFRIBANK |
25/02/2010 |
2.82 |
2.70 |
-4.26 |
|
INTENEGINS |
25/02/2010 |
0.59 |
0.57 |
-3.39 |
|
DANGFLOUR |
25/02/2010 |
13.10 |
12.70 |
-3.05 |
|
STARCOMMS |
25/02/2010 |
2.00 |
1.95 |
-2.50 |
|
JBERGER |
25/02/2010 |
28.50 |
28.00 |
-1.75 |
|
JAPAULOIL |
25/02/2010 |
1.26 |
1.24 |
-1.59 |
|
BIGTREAT |
25/02/2010 |
0.82 |
0.81 |
-1.22 |
|
FIRSTBANK |
25/02/2010 |
14.72 |
14.55 |
-1.15 |
|
NBC |
25/02/2010 |
27.30 |
27.00 |
-1.10 |
|
TANTALIZER |
25/02/2010 |
1.00 |
0.99 |
-1.00 |
|
|
For 25/02/2010 the
closing price was 22,985.00.(NSE INDEX)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending
The projected upper bound is: 23,627.49.
The projected lower bound is: 22,437.16.
The projected closing price is: 23,032.33.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be
easily exceeded by the market. market.
 |
For 25/02/2010 the
closing price was 919.77(NSE30)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending.
The projected upper bound is: 947.39.
The projected lower bound is: 896.34.
The projected closing price is: 921.87
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be
easily exceeded by the market.
 |
|
For 25/02/2010 the
closing price was 345.00.(NSE BANKING)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 398.80.
The projected lower bound is: 366.76.
The projected closing price is: 381.78.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be
easily exceeded by the market. market.
 |
For 25/02/2010 the
closing price was 618.60.(NSE FOOD, BEV.&
TOBACCO)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
The projected upper bound is: 642.94.
The projected lower bound is: 598.99.
The projected closing price is: 620.96.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be
easily exceeded by the market.
 |
|
For 25/02/2010 the
closing price was 200.79.(NSE INSURANCE)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 224.55.
The projected upper bound is: 205.56.
The projected lower bound is: 194.14.
The projected closing price is: 199.85.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be
easily exceeded by the market.
 |
For 25/02/2010 the closing
price was 309.59.(NSE OIL & GAS)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Uptrend.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
The projected upper bound is: 314.30.
The projected lower bound is: 305.65.
The projected closing price is: 309.97.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be
easily exceeded by the market.
 |
|
BELOW ARE TRW
STOCKBROKERS STOCKS WATCH LIST FOR MULTIPLE TIME FRAME OF DAILY,
WEEKLY & MONTHLY
SHORT TREND TRADERS TO USE MA 5
MEDIUM TREND TRADERS TO USE MA-50
LONG TERM TRADERS TO USE MA-100
MA (MOVING AVERAGE)
|
ticker |
date/time |
MA-100 |
MA-50 |
MA-5 |
Overall Trend |
Trend Phase |
Comments |
|
ACCESS |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
AFRIBANK |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
+ |
No Trend |
Progress |
live to trade another day |
|
AIICO |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
AP |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ + + |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
ASHAKACEM |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
ASOSAVINGS |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
BAGCO |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
BCC |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
BIGTREAT |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
- |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
live to trade another day |
|
CHAMS |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
trading range-avoid |
|
CILEASING |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
+ |
No Trend |
Initial |
live to trade another day |
|
CONOIL |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
+ + + |
No Trend |
Progress |
live to trade another day |
|
CONTINSURE |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
- |
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
CORNERST |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
- |
Down Trend |
Progress |
Watch Trend? |
|
COSTAIN |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
CRUSADER |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
+ |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
CUSTODYINS |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
DANGFLOUR |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
DANGSUGAR |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
DIAMONDBNK |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
FCMB |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
FIDELITYBK |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
FIRSTBANK |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
FIRSTINLND |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Progress |
trading range-avoid |
|
FLOURMILL |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
FTNCOCOA |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
GUARANTY |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Progress |
Stay with Trend |
|
GUINEAINS |
25/02/2010 |
|
|
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
GUINNESS |
25/02/2010 |
- |
|
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
HMARKINS |
25/02/2010 |
|
|
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
IBTC |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
INTENEGINS |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
+ |
No Trend |
Progress |
live to trade another day |
|
INTERCONT |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Progress |
trading range-avoid |
|
JAPAULOIL |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
JBERGER |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
|
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
LASACO |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
MAYBAKER |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
MBENEFIT |
25/02/2010 |
|
|
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
MULTIVERSE |
25/02/2010 |
|
|
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
NAHCO |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
NASCON |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
NB |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- - - |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
NBC |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
NEIMETH |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
+ |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
NEM |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
- |
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
NESTLE |
25/02/2010 |
+ + + |
+ + + |
+ + |
Strong Up Trend |
Progress |
Stay with Trend |
|
NIGERINS |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
+ |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
OANDO |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
|
|
No Trend |
Initial |
live to trade another day |
|
OCEANIC |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Progress |
trading range-avoid |
|
PLATINUM |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Progress |
trading range-avoid |
|
PRESTIGE |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
PZ |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
REDSTAREX |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
REGALINS |
25/02/2010 |
- |
|
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
SKYEBANK |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
SOVRENINS |
25/02/2010 |
|
|
|
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
STARCOMMS |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Progress |
trading range-avoid |
|
STDINSURE |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
- |
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
STERLNBANK |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
TANTALIZER |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
UAC-PROP |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
UACN |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
UBA |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
trading range-avoid |
|
UBN |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
+ |
No Trend |
Initial |
live to trade another day |
|
UNHOMES |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
- |
Down Trend |
Progress |
Watch Trend? |
|
UNIC |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
|
+ |
No Trend |
Initial |
trading range-avoid |
|
UNILEVER |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
|
No Trend |
Progress |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
UNITYBNK |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
UPL |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
VITAFOAM |
25/02/2010 |
- |
- |
- |
Down Trend |
Initial |
Watch Trend? |
|
WAPCO |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
WAPIC |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
- |
No Trend |
Initial |
Risk for short term reversal |
|
WEMABANK |
25/02/2010 |
- |
+ |
|
No Trend |
Initial |
trading range-avoid |
|
ZENITHBANK |
25/02/2010 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
Up Trend |
Initial |
Stay with Trend |
|
This commentary is not
a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to
interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only
be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in
securities trading. TRW accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.
|
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INVEST
FOR A GOLDEN TOMORROW
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62/64 Campbell Street (Kajola House) 4th & 5th Floor Lagos Island
Lagos .
234-1-7646689,234-1-2710224
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info@trw-stockbrokers.com website:
www.trw-stockbrokers.com
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