TRW MONTHLY WEEKLY REPORT FOR 1ST MARCH TO 5TH MARCH 2010

Welcome to march. A month of uncertainty where investors trade we caution as we approach earnings season. Comparing the market from January till date the NSE ASI readings have shown a continuous decline in momentum.

Table below showed the Index gained a total of 8.49% in January, while February recorded 1.79%.

 

Technical VIEW
Watching the market from a Technical view calls for a lot of concern as the NSE ASI is trending (22,985.00)on a thin support line of 25DMA of 22,934.40 points. The market needs to bounce off this line to sustain confidence. A break below the line will put the market in a state of uncertainty.

We expect a reversal as RSI is currently at 54.4 points to form a Double Bottom pattern formation around this region. A break below this range will see the Index trading within 22.400 points range.

MACD though above BUY signal on a Daily Time Frame showed a Negative Cross-over on the 10th of February. Weekly/Monthly Time Frame continue to show Bullish Strength/Divergence in the market.

I did a 12 years research back to 1998, how the market has fared between MARCH to APRIL. The table shows Market was DOWN 7 times and UP 5 times. Most DOWN trends have occurred in the last 6 years, Is the market going to experience a repetition of this TREND?.

For now there is a real mix of strength and weakness in all of these charts. The markets remain in a veritable "no man's land", as the risk-reward to either side is not attractive for opening new positions. Next week should resolve some questions as traders return from the holiday week and the important levels highlighted above are tested.
Have a Great Trading week.

 NSE ALL SHARES INDEX FROM 98-2010.

YEAR

TREND

MARCH

APRIL

1998

DOWN

   6,426.17

   6,321.63

1999

UP

   5,376.48

   5,456.22

2000

UP

   5,955.73

   5,966.24

2001

UP

   9,180.53

   9,591.58

2002

UP

 10,581.90

 11,214.40

2003

DOWN

 13,668.80

 13,531.11

2004

DOWN

 24,797.40

 22,896.40

2005

DOWN

 21,659.70

 20,710.80

2006

DOWN

 23,789.80

 23,301.20

2007

UP

 40,313.00

 43,870.30

2008

DOWN

 65,911.00

 63,075.31

2009

DOWN

 22,634.20

 19,871.70

 

 FEBRUARY MONTHLY INDEX.

Ticker

Date

Previous

Price

%Change

NSE

25/02/2010

22594.90

22985.00

1.73

NSE 30

25/02/2010

891.25

919.77

3.20

NSE BANKING

25/02/2010

374.27

380.84

1.76

NSE F&B

25/02/2010

596.22

618.60

3.75

NSE INS

25/02/2010

223.19

200.79

-10.04

NSE O&G

25/02/2010

298.31

309.59

3.78

JANUARY MONTHLY INDEX
Ticker Date Previous Price %Change
NSE 29/01/2010   20,827.17   22,594.90        8.49
NSE 30 29/01/2010       827.99        891.25        7.64
NSE BANKING 29/01/2010       339.32        374.27       10.30
NSE F&B 29/01/2010        526.71        596.22       13.20
NSE INS 29/01/2010        249.01        223.19

        -10.37  

NSE O&G 29/01/2010       288.06        298.31        3.56

 

 

 INDEX WEEKLY TIME FRAME

Ticker

Date

Previous

Price

%Change

NSE

25/02/2010

23168.64

22985.00

-0.79

NSE 30

25/02/2010

924.93

919.77

-0.56

NSE BANKING

25/02/2010

384.33

380.84

-0.91

NSE F&B

25/02/2010

608.94

618.60

1.59

NSE INS

25/02/2010

208.90

200.79

-3.88

NSE O&G

25/02/2010

295.88

309.59

4.63

 

 MONTHLY GAINERS

Ticker

Date

Previous

Price

Monthly

AP

25/02/2010

36.40

47.46

30.38

BAGCO

25/02/2010

1.90

2.34

23.16

FTNCOCOA

25/02/2010

0.72

0.87

20.83

FLOURMILL

25/02/2010

38.85

45.10

16.09

UNITYBNK

25/02/2010

1.00

1.15

15.00

DIAMONDBNK

25/02/2010

8.40

9.35

11.31

UNIC

25/02/2010

0.74

0.82

10.81

ACCESS

25/02/2010

8.23

9.10

10.57

ASHAKACEM

25/02/2010

14.77

16.20

9.68

AIICO

25/02/2010

0.94

1.03

9.57

SKYEBANK

25/02/2010

6.79

7.36

8.39

UACN

25/02/2010

40.01

43.29

8.20

UNILEVER

25/02/2010

23.17

25.00

7.90

NESTLE

25/02/2010

252.00

270.00

7.14

FIDELITYBK

25/02/2010

2.51

2.68

6.77

DANGSUGAR

25/02/2010

15.10

16.00

5.96

NB

25/02/2010

54.15

57.00

5.26

UAC-PROP

25/02/2010

20.00

21.00

5.00

UBA

25/02/2010

12.45

13.01

4.50

FCMB

25/02/2010

8.85

9.20

3.95

WAPCO

25/02/2010

34.00

35.20

3.53

CUSTODYINS

25/02/2010

2.85

2.95

3.51

ZENITHBANK

25/02/2010

15.31

15.71

2.61

COSTAIN

25/02/2010

4.88

5.00

2.46

STERLNBANK

25/02/2010

1.69

1.73

2.37

IBTC

25/02/2010

8.30

8.45

1.81

CONOIL

25/02/2010

33.57

34.17

1.79

WEMABANK

25/02/2010

1.13

1.15

1.77

GUARANTY

25/02/2010

17.79

18.06

1.52

REDSTAREX

25/02/2010

2.61

2.64

1.15

UPL

25/02/2010

5.45

5.50

0.92

CILEASING

25/02/2010

2.69

2.70

0.37

GUINNESS

25/02/2010

128.7

129.00

0.23

BCC

25/02/2010

50.00

50.07

0.14

 

 MONTHLY LOSERS

Ticker

Date

Previous

Price

Monthly

STDINSURE

25/02/2010

0.67

0.50

-25.37

NIGERINS

25/02/2010

0.92

0.74

-19.57

VITAFOAM

25/02/2010

5.49

4.72

-14.03

PLATINUM

25/02/2010

2.22

1.91

-13.96

NEIMETH

25/02/2010

1.70

1.47

-13.53

INTERCONT

25/02/2010

2.30

2.00

-13.04

CORNERST

25/02/2010

0.57

0.50

-12.28

OCEANIC

25/02/2010

2.36

2.08

-11.86

UNHOMES

25/02/2010

0.98

0.87

-11.22

FIRSTINLND

25/02/2010

0.77

0.69

-10.39

CRUSADER

25/02/2010

1.05

0.95

-9.52

LASACO

25/02/2010

0.56

0.51

-8.93

MAYBAKER

25/02/2010

5.50

5.04

-8.36

NASCON

25/02/2010

6.73

6.20

-7.88

CHAMS

25/02/2010

0.77

0.71

-7.79

NAHCO

25/02/2010

9.04

8.36

-7.52

UBN

25/02/2010

6.45

6.05

-6.20

NEM

25/02/2010

0.54

0.51

-5.56

PRESTIGE

25/02/2010

3.80

3.61

-5.00

WAPIC

25/02/2010

1.04

0.99

-4.81

ASOSAVINGS

25/02/2010

0.68

0.65

-4.41

AFRIBANK

25/02/2010

2.82

2.70

-4.26

INTENEGINS

25/02/2010

0.59

0.57

-3.39

DANGFLOUR

25/02/2010

13.10

12.70

-3.05

STARCOMMS

25/02/2010

2.00

1.95

-2.50

JBERGER

25/02/2010

28.50

28.00

-1.75

JAPAULOIL

25/02/2010

1.26

1.24

-1.59

BIGTREAT

25/02/2010

0.82

0.81

-1.22

FIRSTBANK

25/02/2010

14.72

14.55

-1.15

NBC

25/02/2010

27.30

27.00

-1.10

TANTALIZER

25/02/2010

1.00

0.99

-1.00

For 25/02/2010 the closing price was 22,985.00.(NSE INDEX)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending
The projected upper bound is: 23,627.49.
The projected lower bound is: 22,437.16.
The projected closing price is: 23,032.33.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market. market.


For 25/02/2010 the closing price was 919.77(NSE30)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending.
The projected upper bound is: 947.39.
The projected lower bound is: 896.34.
The projected closing price is: 921.87
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For 25/02/2010 the closing price was 345.00.(NSE BANKING)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are stalling.
Intermediate term: Prices are Trending.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 398.80.
The projected lower bound is: 366.76.
The projected closing price is: 381.78.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market. market.

For 25/02/2010 the closing price was 618.60.(NSE FOOD, BEV.& TOBACCO)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
The projected upper bound is: 642.94.
The projected lower bound is: 598.99.
The projected closing price is: 620.96.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For 25/02/2010 the closing price was 200.79.(NSE INSURANCE)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 224.55.
The projected upper bound is: 205.56.
The projected lower bound is: 194.14.
The projected closing price is: 199.85.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

For 25/02/2010 the closing price was 309.59.(NSE OIL & GAS)
Overall, the bias in prices is: Uptrend.
Short term: Prices are moving.
Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
The projected upper bound is: 314.30.
The projected lower bound is: 305.65.
The projected closing price is: 309.97.
Note: these price projections are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by the market.

BELOW ARE TRW STOCKBROKERS STOCKS WATCH LIST FOR MULTIPLE TIME FRAME OF DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY
SHORT TREND TRADERS TO USE MA 5
MEDIUM TREND TRADERS TO USE MA-50
LONG TERM TRADERS TO USE MA-100
MA (MOVING AVERAGE)


 

ticker

date/time

MA-100

MA-50

MA-5

Overall Trend

Trend Phase

Comments

ACCESS

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

AFRIBANK

25/02/2010

-

+

+

No Trend

Progress

live to trade another day

AIICO

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

AP

25/02/2010

+

+

+ + +

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

ASHAKACEM

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

ASOSAVINGS

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

BAGCO

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

BCC

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

BIGTREAT

25/02/2010

+

-

-

No Trend

Initial

live to trade another day

CHAMS

25/02/2010

-

+

-

No Trend

Initial

trading range-avoid

CILEASING

25/02/2010

-

+

+

No Trend

Initial

live to trade another day

CONOIL

25/02/2010

-

+

+ + +

No Trend

Progress

live to trade another day

CONTINSURE

25/02/2010

-

-

-

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

CORNERST

25/02/2010

-

-

-

Down Trend

Progress

Watch Trend?

COSTAIN

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

CRUSADER

25/02/2010

-

-

+

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

CUSTODYINS

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

DANGFLOUR

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

DANGSUGAR

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

DIAMONDBNK

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

FCMB

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

FIDELITYBK

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

FIRSTBANK

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

FIRSTINLND

25/02/2010

-

+

-

No Trend

Progress

trading range-avoid

FLOURMILL

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

FTNCOCOA

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

GUARANTY

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Progress

Stay with Trend

GUINEAINS

25/02/2010

 

 

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

GUINNESS

25/02/2010

-

 

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

HMARKINS

25/02/2010

 

 

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

IBTC

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

INTENEGINS

25/02/2010

-

+

+

No Trend

Progress

live to trade another day

INTERCONT

25/02/2010

-

+

-

No Trend

Progress

trading range-avoid

JAPAULOIL

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

JBERGER

25/02/2010

+

+

 

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

LASACO

25/02/2010

-

-

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

MAYBAKER

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

MBENEFIT

25/02/2010

 

 

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

MULTIVERSE

25/02/2010

 

 

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

NAHCO

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

NASCON

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

NB

25/02/2010

+

+

- - -

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

NBC

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

NEIMETH

25/02/2010

-

-

+

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

NEM

25/02/2010

-

-

-

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

NESTLE

25/02/2010

+ + +

+ + +

+ +

Strong Up Trend

Progress

Stay with Trend

NIGERINS

25/02/2010

-

-

+

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

OANDO

25/02/2010

+

 

 

No Trend

Initial

live to trade another day

OCEANIC

25/02/2010

-

+

-

No Trend

Progress

trading range-avoid

PLATINUM

25/02/2010

-

+

-

No Trend

Progress

trading range-avoid

PRESTIGE

25/02/2010

-

-

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

PZ

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

REDSTAREX

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

REGALINS

25/02/2010

-

 

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

SKYEBANK

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

SOVRENINS

25/02/2010

 

 

 

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

STARCOMMS

25/02/2010

-

+

-

No Trend

Progress

trading range-avoid

STDINSURE

25/02/2010

-

-

-

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

STERLNBANK

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

TANTALIZER

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

UAC-PROP

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

UACN

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

UBA

25/02/2010

-

+

-

No Trend

Initial

trading range-avoid

UBN

25/02/2010

-

+

+

No Trend

Initial

live to trade another day

UNHOMES

25/02/2010

-

-

-

Down Trend

Progress

Watch Trend?

UNIC

25/02/2010

+

 

+

No Trend

Initial

trading range-avoid

UNILEVER

25/02/2010

+

+

 

No Trend

Progress

Risk for short term reversal

UNITYBNK

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

UPL

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

VITAFOAM

25/02/2010

-

-

-

Down Trend

Initial

Watch Trend?

WAPCO

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

WAPIC

25/02/2010

+

+

-

No Trend

Initial

Risk for short term reversal

WEMABANK

25/02/2010

-

+

 

No Trend

Initial

trading range-avoid

ZENITHBANK

25/02/2010

+

+

+

Up Trend

Initial

Stay with Trend

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. TRW accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.
 
INVEST FOR A GOLDEN TOMORROW

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